One smartphone to rule them all?
Will there ever come a time when one smartphone rules over the rest? Knowledge at Wharton finds out.
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T&A: Knowledge at Wharton online business journal released a report asking the question if there will soon be one smartphone company emerging to become the overall market winner.
Basically, this seems to be a trend now, considering that computer operating systems were jostling for the same position in the late 1970s and early 1980s until Bill and company hit jackpot thanks to the IBM-compatible PC.
Today however, the smartphone market is far more fragmented than it ever was. Smartphones today allow users to web surf, email, manage calendars beyond making phone calls and watching the latest bloopers. Players like BlackBerry, Apple, Palm, the Symbian guys (Nokia especially), Google Android and Microsoft are all vying for that sweet spot. What’s complex however is the dominance the telecom providers (like AT&T in the US, Sprint for the Palm Pre, etc.) have over these device manufacturers.
According to Wharton, if this isn’t a game-changing tipping point, nobody would know what is. Will there be a consolidation of just one or two dominant operating systems or will the fragmentation hamper the growth of the industry? The attraction however lies in the locking in of users once their minds are fixed on a particular smartphone. This is because the entire ecosystem has a ‘locking in’ effect and it would be extremely difficult to switch platforms without busting both familiarity and contract. (Editor opinions: 1)
At the end of the day however, it might not be the device nor the telecom operator that decide who wins. It’s probably the proliferation, accessibility, affordability and sustainability of the app community behind any one particular winning ecosystem. So it could mean winning the developer market first before going all out for consumers.
Perhaps the smartphone industry today is different than the desktop operating system industry of the 70s and 80s. Perhaps users want choice and competition, instead of one dominant operating system, device and player. Considering that smartphones are extremely personal to the user, the ultimate choice lies in the hand of the user alone, and no two user is exactly the same.
Vijay Anand, Editor, HardwareZone.com
Vijay (HardwareZone.com): In a PC ecosystem where software compatibility, accessibility and usability are king, I can understand why a single major OS that does the job well for most people is still the preferred choice.
Today, though we have operating system alternatives like Linux and other open source software, they will remain as smaller competitors unless they can match up to Microsoft’s offerings in the desktop and notebook space.
However, on the mobile phone or smartphone side, the device, is just the gateway to the common functionality offered by all other vendors.
Different technologies would have to be supported by the telecom operators and they, in turn would only bow to such support only if they can see returns from customers and developers.
BlackBerry and its push-email functionality was probably close to achieving dominance in the business world but other vendors developed their own push-email functionality via other protocols.
The very personal nature of the device means design and usability preferences differ from person to person. Beyond this is the telco’s contractural obligation which most of us are bound by.
Users would also factor in the familiarity aspect and would prefer to upgrade to a device of the same brand where possible. So it remains to be seen in this modern web-centric world if any single smartphone company can trump the rest. And unless any one of them has found a wonder formula (or make a big mistake), I highly doubt it.
The Microsoft Windows operating system had successfully dominated the computing market in the 1990s. Sony also had millions of music lovers eating out of their palms when they unveiled the first ever Walkman player. But when it comes to smartphones, can there really be a single phone that rules them all? If the researchers at the University of Pennsylvania were to be believed, as smartphones continue to proliferate, the idea that a single manufacturer can monopolize the entire smartphone market is not too far-fetched a notion. According to an online podcast posted on their website, they seem to assume that just because the PC industry managed to be controlled by a single market player, this phenomenon can also be replicated in the mobile phone sector.
Such sentiments are shallow, I feel. If I had to bet my life savings, I will stick to my guns and proclaim that there can never be a single phone to rule them all. Arguably, phones aren’t just soulless machines, but rather, a device that communicates the individuality and personality of the user. In a bid to add some personal touches to their handsets, not only are users jazzing them up with bling and customizing the color themes of their respective phones, they are also looking to flood their phones with applications that will suit their needs. This ultimately led to the birth of the App Store, where each phone manufacturer realizes that customers aren’t just impressed by a phone’s hardware. Although the Apple App Store is at the forefront when it comes to App Store sales, other manufacturers like Nokia and BlackBerry are already taking baby steps to improve theirs. Such efforts to personalize and customize users’ phones are a mere reflection of having the devices meet your needs rather than the other way around. In other words, the user is King, and he can dictate how his phone works for him.
It is also in the human nature to pine for variety. Instead of being told what sort of phones and features we should be using, customers want the power and ability to make such decisions for themselves. Hence, we are always on the lookout for different operating systems and features that we can play around with, so that we can choose the operating systems that we personally prefer. This simply means that given the chance, no well-thinking tech geek would opt to stick to a single operating system (no matter how reliable or intuitive this system may be), but instead, would prefer to test out various different interfaces. On the same note, users do not fancy being told what features they should be using. For someone who doesn’t know how to read maps, he wouldn’t give two hoots if a phone offers the best GPS functions. Or in the case of a non-music lover, he wouldn’t want to spend extra dough on phones with music player functions. As a result, it would be impossible for any one manufacturer to have a threshold on the entire smartphone industry, as there will always be different user needs and preferences. Additionally, no manufacturer can stuff their products down a user’s throat and expect him to accept it.
Furthermore, for the typical man on the street, the operating system plays second fiddle to the interface that runs on top of the OS. For example, if the Android could run iPhone apps and produce the identical iPhone experience in similar-looking devices, people might flock the Google way. What’s important to note is that, many users can’t differentiate the various operating systems. For one, with the latest Samsung phones placing the TouchWiz interface on top of the Symbian operating system, most techies don’t even realize the Symbian system is running the phone, much less realize that these phones can support Nokia apps.
Another argument raised by the University is that a single phone manufacturer might be able to dictate the actions of the telecom companies. For one, I have read a report suggesting that the Android, despite being a newcomer in the mobile phone industry, may be poised to force wireless carriers and handset makers to alter their strategies and offer cheaper data plans so that users can fully enjoy the features of the Android platform. But frankly speaking, this wasn’t something that we witnessed in Singapore. Though the prices of data plans have fallen, it is not due to the birth of Android, but rather, as a result of more 3G devices in the market. Hence, the idea of a single phone manufacturer taking reins of telecom companies to meet the manufacturers’ interests is a highly simplistic and shallow notion.
The situation in the market right now is simply this: no single manufacturer, no matter how powerful it is, has the ability to sway the entire phone industry. Take Finnish company Nokia into consideration: despite being the number one manufacturer in the world, it hasn’t had much success trying to distract developers from the almighty iPhone. During the launch of the iPhone, there were many more Nokia smartphones in the market, but these phones did not get the attention that Apple’s product received. In just a matter of months, sales of the iPhone impaled that of Nokia handsets. Moreover, if there is one thing to learn about the iPhone’s success, is that customization options are key when meeting the needs of the consumer. Particularly, the ability to buy applications managed to drive up the sales of the iPhone. That just reiterates our point that users are fickle-beings that want the power to choose phones and functions that meet their changing needs.
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