Will there ever come a time when one smartphone rules over the rest? Knowledge at Wharton finds out.

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T&A: Knowledge at Wharton online business journal released a report asking the question if there will soon be one smartphone company emerging to become the overall market winner.

Basically, this seems to be a trend now, considering that computer operating systems were jostling for the same position in the late 1970s and early 1980s until Bill and company hit jackpot thanks to the IBM-compatible PC.

Today however, the smartphone market is far more fragmented than it ever was. Smartphones today allow users to web surf, email, manage calendars beyond making phone calls and watching the latest bloopers. Players like BlackBerry, Apple, Palm, the Symbian guys (Nokia especially), Google Android and Microsoft are all vying for that sweet spot. What’s complex however is the dominance the telecom providers (like AT&T in the US, Sprint for the Palm Pre, etc.) have over these device manufacturers.

According to Wharton, if this isn’t a game-changing tipping point, nobody would know what is. Will there be a consolidation of just one or two dominant operating systems or will the fragmentation hamper the growth of the industry? The attraction however lies in the locking in of users once their minds are fixed on a particular smartphone. This is because the entire ecosystem has a ‘locking in’ effect and it would be extremely difficult to switch platforms without busting both familiarity and contract. (Editor opinions: 1)

At the end of the day however, it might not be the device nor the telecom operator that decide who wins. It’s probably the proliferation, accessibility, affordability and sustainability of the app community behind any one particular winning ecosystem. So it could mean winning the developer market first before going all out for consumers.

Perhaps the smartphone industry today is different than the desktop operating system industry of the 70s and 80s. Perhaps users want choice and competition, instead of one dominant operating system, device and player. Considering that smartphones are extremely personal to the user, the ultimate choice lies in the hand of the user alone, and no two user is exactly the same.

Vijay Anand, Editor, HardwareZone.com

Vijay (HardwareZone.com): In a PC ecosystem where software compatibility, accessibility and usability are king, I can understand why a single major OS that does the job well for most people is still the preferred choice.

Today, though we have operating system alternatives like Linux and other open source software, they will remain as smaller competitors unless they can match up to Microsoft’s offerings in the desktop and notebook space.

However, on the mobile phone or smartphone side, the device, is just the gateway to the common functionality offered by all other vendors.

Different technologies would have to be supported by the telecom operators and they, in turn would only bow to such support only if they can see returns from customers and developers.

BlackBerry and its push-email functionality was probably close to achieving dominance in the business world but other vendors developed their own push-email functionality via other protocols.

The very personal nature of the device means design and usability preferences differ from person to person. Beyond this is the telco’s contractural obligation which most of us are bound by.

Users would also factor in the familiarity aspect and would prefer to upgrade to a device of the same brand where possible. So it remains to be seen in this modern web-centric world if any single smartphone company can trump the rest. And unless any one of them has found a wonder formula (or make a big mistake), I highly doubt it.