Will there ever come a time when one smartphone rules over the rest? Knowledge at Wharton finds out.

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T&A: Knowledge at Wharton online business journal released a report asking the question if there will soon be one smartphone company emerging to become the overall market winner.

Basically, this seems to be a trend now, considering that computer operating systems were jostling for the same position in the late 1970s and early 1980s until Bill and company hit jackpot thanks to the IBM-compatible PC.

Today however, the smartphone market is far more fragmented than it ever was. Smartphones today allow users to web surf, email, manage calendars beyond making phone calls and watching the latest bloopers. Players like BlackBerry, Apple, Palm, the Symbian guys (Nokia especially), Google Android and Microsoft are all vying for that sweet spot. What’s complex however is the dominance the telecom providers (like AT&T in the US, Sprint for the Palm Pre, etc.) have over these device manufacturers.

According to Wharton, if this isn’t a game-changing tipping point, nobody would know what is. Will there be a consolidation of just one or two dominant operating systems or will the fragmentation hamper the growth of the industry? The attraction however lies in the locking in of users once their minds are fixed on a particular smartphone. This is because the entire ecosystem has a ‘locking in’ effect and it would be extremely difficult to switch platforms without busting both familiarity and contract. (Editor opinions: 1) (more…)